ASEAN Future Forum highlights Vietnam’s growing economic role

ASEAN Future Forum highlights Vietnam’s growing economic role

Dr Chu Thanh Tuan (RMIT Vietnam) believes the ASEAN Future Forum (AFF) 2026 provides an opportunity to reinforce Vietnam’s increasingly proactive role in shaping the region’s development agenda.

1. Amid intensifying strategic competition among major powers, what is the biggest economic challenge facing ASEAN in the coming years?

In my view, ASEAN’s greatest economic challenge is not simply slowing trade growth or a short-term shock, but the risk of being drawn into global economic fragmentation. Strategic competition among major powers is reshaping how businesses choose supply chains, technologies, data ecosystems, green standards, and investment destinations.

For ASEAN, this is particularly sensitive because the region’s prosperity over the past decades has been built on an open environment where countries can engage with multiple partners without having to choose sides. I would emphasise the risk of “decoupling”, where ASEAN could be forced to side with competing trade, technology, and investment ecosystems.

ASEAN itself acknowledged in the ASEAN Economic Community Strategic Plan 2026–2030 that geopolitical tensions, trade shifts, technological transformation, climate change, and demographic changes are among the megatrends shaping the region’s future. The fundamental response, therefore, is for ASEAN to accelerate intra-regional integration, transforming itself from merely an alternative location in global supply chains into a genuinely integrated market with its own capabilities, collective voice, and bargaining power. 

2. ASEAN has frequently discussed resilience. Which area should the bloc prioritise for cooperation to strengthen regional competitiveness?

If I had to identify one priority, it would be digital economic integration linked to regional production capabilities. ASEAN often speaks about resilience, but resilience does not mean isolation. In today’s context, resilience means being able to connect faster, more reliably, and with less dependence on external bottlenecks.

This is why the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) is strategically important. It is ASEAN’s first region-wide digital economy agreement, covering digital trade, cross-border e-commerce, data governance, digital identity, electronic payments, online safety, cybersecurity, emerging technologies such as AI, and the mobility of digital talent. If implemented effectively, ASEAN’s digital economy could reach US$2 trillion by 2030.

However, DEFA will only deliver meaningful outcomes if it is accompanied by improvements in logistics, common standards, cross-border payment systems, workforce skills, and SME capabilities. ASEAN’s resilience should ultimately be measured by whether businesses within the region can sell products, raise capital, transfer data, protect intellectual property, and expand across ASEAN before competing globally.

Dr Chu Thanh Tuan, Associate Program Manager of the Bachelor of Business program at RMIT Vietnam (Image: RMIT) Dr Chu Thanh Tuan, Associate Program Manager of the Bachelor of Business program at RMIT Vietnam (Image: RMIT)

3. Artificial intelligence (AI) presents significant opportunities but also considerable risks. How should ASEAN cooperate to maximise AI’s economic benefits while mitigating its downsides?

AI presents tremendous opportunities, but without effective cooperation it could also widen development gaps among ASEAN member states. I believe ASEAN should view AI as development infrastructure rather than merely a commercial technology.

First, ASEAN needs common principles for AI governance, including safety, transparency, personal data protection, accountability, and algorithm auditing in sensitive sectors such as finance, healthcare, education, public administration, and cybersecurity.

Second, ASEAN should avoid a fragmented regulatory landscape where each country develops entirely separate AI rules. A mutual recognition framework for AI standards would allow businesses to scale products across the region while reducing compliance costs.

Third, AI policy must be accompanied by workforce policy. Workers in manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, services, and public administration will face significant disruption if reskilling efforts fail to keep pace. ASEAN’s AI cooperation agenda should therefore include a strong pillar focused on digital skills for SMEs, blue-collar workers, women, and young people.

This approach aligns closely with the spirit of AFF 2026, which emphasises people-centred development and seeks solutions to build a stronger and more resilient ASEAN.

4. Vietnam is becoming increasingly proactive in proposing regional initiatives, including the ASEAN Future Forum. What distinctive contribution could Vietnam make to ASEAN’s development over the next decade?

Vietnam can leave a distinctive mark on ASEAN by acting as an agenda-setter rather than merely a participant.

What sets Vietnam apart is its ability to combine economic development, political stability, and strategic proactiveness. Vietnam has a deep appreciation for the value of peace, integration, and industrialisation, while also possessing extensive experience in balancing relationships with major powers.

Over the next decade, Vietnam’s contribution should focus on three areas: facilitating open strategic dialogue through platforms such as AFF, leading cooperation initiatives in the Mekong region and smart city development, and helping shape regional standards on digital economy, AI, green growth, and inclusive development.

This role is consistent with a country that is becoming more economically mature and increasingly confident in its international engagement like Vietnam.

5. From an economic perspective, what must Vietnam do over the next five to ten years to become not only an investment destination but also a centre for innovation and value creation in ASEAN?

To become a regional innovation and value-creation hub, Vietnam must move beyond a growth model that relies primarily on low-cost labour, industrial land, and tax incentives.

Foreign direct investment will remain important, but the more important question is how much value Vietnam can retain within those production chains. Over the next five to ten years, the top priority should be strengthening domestic capabilities.

Vietnam’s semiconductor strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2050, aims to establish at least 100 design companies, one small-scale fabrication facility, 10 packaging and testing plants, annual semiconductor revenues exceeding US$25 billion, and a workforce of more than 50,000 engineers and graduates between 2024 and 2030.

This is the right direction, but it must be supported by higher education reform, greater investment in research and development, stronger intellectual property protection, the development of deep-tech venture capital, and policies that encourage meaningful linkages between FDI corporations and Vietnamese firms.

If Vietnam focuses solely on attracting factories, it will remain an investment destination. If it can develop expertise, data capabilities, design capacity, standards, brands, and innovation networks, it can become a genuine centre of value creation within ASEAN.

Story: June Pham

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